Many individuals are under the impression that trendspotters and trend forecasting agencies use dubious, unresearched methods. Others think they predict the obvious. Others feel that trendspotters only seek fleeting fads but lack the ability or intelligence to spot anything substantial. Such misconceptions act as a major impairment to the trend forecasting industry that must be overcome.
UK-based trend marketer William Higham seeks to address these issues in his 2009 book The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit. As Higham puts it, “the confusing and often secret world of trends should be opened up. Recognized, formal methodologies should be developed to enable effective exploitation of trends.”
Higham takes this task very seriously. The Next Big Thing is extremely thorough, with two sections (addressing both trends and the profession of trend marketing) and five parts (discussing the value of trends, beginning with trends, understanding trends, trend identification, trend interpretation, and implementation of trend-based knowledge).
The Next Big Thing leaves one with a very clear understanding of what it takes to be a legitimate, effective, and accurate trend forecaster. More importantly, the book establishes a formal set of methods and terms to which professionals can refer. This is extremely important, for without basic standards, there are few ways to distinguish legitimate trendspotters and trend agencies from those which are less effective. With luck, The Next Big Thing will help the trendspotting industry rid itself of pretenders and hence its negative reputation.
Interesting Points
Never have I marked so many different pages in a book for future reference. The Next Big Thing is, in my mind, the Bible of the trendspotting industry. It is a must-read for anyone serious about forecasting trends, full-time or otherwise. The book addresses some issues that I found to be exceptionally important / interesting, and I shall briefly discuss them below. I’ll be sure to refer to other issues addressed in The Next Big Thing (especially those on methodology) in the future.
History
While humans have been looking to the future for thousands of years, the business of trend forecasting is relatively new. Higham explains that before the 1950s, commercial trend analysis was only practiced in the fashion industry, and only to a very limited extent.
Interestingly, non-fashion trend forecasting did not emerge until the Second World War, with the development of scenario planning by the US Air Force. When the war was over, people involved with military planning and forecasting, such as Herman Kahn, brought trendspotting to the commercial sphere. Other “self-styled ‘futurists’” and planners refined the capitalistic application, and advertising agencies began to offer account planning services. “It was not until the 1990s that trend forecasting consultancies began to spring up. Faith Popcorn published The Popcorn Report (HarperCollins) in 1992. By the late 1990s, the research and insight departments of several major brands and media agencies were utilizing trend forecasting practices.” (45)
It is important to understand the history of trend forecasting, not only because it distinguishes fashion forecasting from commercial forecasting, but because it reveals just how new the discipline actually is. It is ultimately no wonder that the trendspotting industry lacks fixed standards and methods; the practice is very new and has been rapidly evolving.
Nomenclature
William Higham makes a very deliberate effort to name the practice of spotting and analyzing trends (which has been referred to as futurology, cool hunting, trend spotting, trend forecasting, trend prediction, trending, trendology, and creatology), arguing that using a uniform term will aid standardization and formalization. He ultimately settles on the term ‘trend marketing’:
“I believe it is important that the term include the word ‘trend’, despite the concerns some people have about it. It is a good shorthand term for changes in consumer behaviours or attitudes. But adding the word ‘marketing’ does two things. It grounds the discipline within a specific part of the business process. And it shows that the process is not just ‘icing on the cake’ but actually has a distinct commercial purpose.” (46)
While I am not entirely a fan of the term (to me it sounds like trend marketers develop and sell trends, instead of spot and analyze them), I agree that it is important to adopt an agreed-upon set of terms if one wishes to formalize a practice or industry. I do not know exactly how this will happen, but I do hope that as time progresses, professionals will define a uniform set of terminology.
Misconceptions
In order to dispel the negative reputation faced by the trend forecasting industry, Higham addresses it directly:
“Many individuals have a negative attitude towards trends that is actually based upon incorrect assumptions about what the process entails or delivers. There are still to many marketers who see it as a pseudo-science or management fad or as ‘nice to know’ not ‘need to know’. To some extent this attitude is understandable. As noted above, the discipline is relatively new. There are as yet no specific qualifications that can be gained in it. And its practitioners do not subscribe to a single agreed process. But such factors should not put people off. The process is now both systematized and effective. Most of the negative attitudes to trends are based on myths.” (46)
One of the most prominent myths is that of cool hunting, which Higham emphatically confronts:
“Trend marketing is not the same as ‘cool hunting’. The process is not particularly concerned with ‘cool’. Trend marketers will take an interest in what is fashionable, because it can sometimes provide clues as to more substantive behavioural changes. But they do not care passionately about whether, say, stripes and short hemlines will be filling the catwalks next season. Outside the fashion industry, few companies can usefully exploit such information in ways that have a positive impact on their bottom line. Trend forecasters therefore do not spend the bulk of their time studying training shows or jeans styles in Williamsburg, Shoreditch or Harajuku. In fact, they probably spend as much time in front of a computer as they do on the street.” (47)
Higham explains that cool hunting was both over-publicized and over-practiced in the 1990s, which led to a bad reputation and a misconception that cool hunting was all that trend marketers did. Higham argues that today, trend marketers do not only identify, but also analyze trends, and deliver insights and foresight that will measurably effect companies’ strategies and finances.
Higham also asserts that trend forecasting is not a pseudo science. “Like any branch of research, true trend analysis utilizes a formal, rigorous process. It takes a positivist approach. Laws are determined and theories affirmed through the utilization of rigorous empirical techniques. Successful trend forecasting follows a logical pattern. It combines a variety of robust methodologies in a regulated combination.” (48)
In time the trend forecasting industry will have formalized. Agencies and individuals that utilize legitimate practices will be the only survivors and concerns about short-sighted and poorly-researched analysis will be dispelled. For the time being, it is my sincere hope that Higham’s Next Big Thing helps to speed the industry’s evolution and aid companies in discerning true professionals from pretenders.
About the Author
William Higham is a professional trend forecaster and founder of The Next Big Thing, a trend consultancy that uses consumer research and systematic analysis of change patterns and cultural dynamics to help companies identify and target new consumer markets. The Next Big Thing has served such brands as AOL, Budweiser, Nielsen, and Siemens.
Higham has over 20 years of experience in marketing, and has worked for Sony, Virgin and Universal. His experience and interest in consulting for media and fashion brands led him to establish The Next Big Thing in 2002. The Next Big Thing, published in 2009, is Higham’s first book.
