Trend Spotting Book Review: The Next Big Thing

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Many individuals are under the impression that trendspotters and trend forecasting agencies use dubious, unresearched methods.  Others think they predict the obvious. Others feel that trendspotters only seek fleeting fads but lack the ability or intelligence to spot anything substantial.  Such misconceptions act as a major impairment to the trend forecasting industry that must be overcome.

UK-based trend marketer William Higham seeks to address these issues in his 2009 book The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit.  As Higham puts it, “the confusing and often secret world of trends should be opened up. Recognized, formal methodologies should be developed to enable effective exploitation of trends.”

Higham takes this task very seriously.  The Next Big Thing is extremely thorough, with two sections (addressing both trends and the profession of trend marketing) and five parts (discussing the value of trends, beginning with trends, understanding trends, trend identification, trend interpretation, and implementation of trend-based knowledge).

The Next Big Thing
leaves one with a very clear understanding of what it takes to be a legitimate, effective, and accurate trend forecaster.  More importantly, the book establishes a formal set of methods and terms to which professionals can refer.  This is extremely important, for without basic standards, there are few ways to distinguish legitimate trendspotters and trend agencies from those which are less effective.  With luck, The Next Big Thing will help the trendspotting industry rid itself of pretenders and hence its negative reputation.

Interesting Points

Never have I marked so many different pages in a book for future reference.  The Next Big Thing is, in my mind, the Bible of the trendspotting industry.  It is a must-read for anyone serious about forecasting trends, full-time or otherwise.  The book addresses some issues that I found to be exceptionally important / interesting, and I shall briefly discuss them below.  I’ll be sure to refer to other issues addressed in The Next Big Thing (especially those on methodology) in the future.

History

While humans have been looking to the future for thousands of years, the business of trend forecasting is relatively new.  Higham explains that before the 1950s, commercial trend analysis was only practiced in the fashion industry, and only to a very limited extent.

Interestingly, non-fashion trend forecasting did not emerge until the Second World War, with the development of scenario planning by the US Air Force.  When the war was over, people involved with military planning and forecasting, such as Herman Kahn, brought trendspotting to the commercial sphere.  Other “self-styled ‘futurists’” and planners refined the capitalistic application, and advertising agencies began to offer account planning services.  “It was not until the 1990s that trend forecasting consultancies began to spring up.  Faith Popcorn published The Popcorn Report (HarperCollins) in 1992.  By the late 1990s, the research and insight departments of several major brands and media agencies were utilizing trend forecasting practices.” (45)

It is important to understand the history of trend forecasting, not only because it distinguishes fashion forecasting from commercial forecasting, but because it reveals just how new the discipline actually is.  It is ultimately no wonder that the trendspotting industry lacks fixed standards and methods; the practice is very new and has been rapidly evolving.

Nomenclature

William Higham makes a very deliberate effort to name the practice of spotting and analyzing trends (which has been referred to as futurology, cool hunting, trend spotting, trend forecasting, trend prediction, trending, trendology, and creatology), arguing that using a uniform term will aid standardization and formalization.  He ultimately settles on the term ‘trend marketing’:

“I believe it is important that the term include the word ‘trend’, despite the concerns some people have about it.  It is a good shorthand term for changes in consumer behaviours or attitudes.  But adding the word ‘marketing’ does two things.  It grounds the discipline within a specific part of the business process.  And it shows that the process is not just ‘icing on the cake’ but actually has a distinct commercial purpose.” (46)

While I am not entirely a fan of the term (to me it sounds like trend marketers develop and sell trends, instead of spot and analyze them), I agree that it is important to adopt an agreed-upon set of terms if one wishes to formalize a practice or industry.  I do not know exactly how this will happen, but I do hope that as time progresses, professionals will define a uniform set of terminology.

Misconceptions

In order to dispel the negative reputation faced by the trend forecasting industry, Higham addresses it directly:

“Many individuals have a negative attitude towards trends that is actually based upon incorrect assumptions about what the process entails or delivers.  There are still to many marketers who see it as a pseudo-science or management fad or as ‘nice to know’ not ‘need to know’.  To some extent this attitude is understandable.  As noted above, the discipline is relatively new.  There are as yet no specific qualifications that can be gained in it.  And its practitioners do not subscribe to a single agreed process.  But such factors should not put people off.  The process is now both systematized and effective.  Most of the negative attitudes to trends are based on myths.” (46)

One of the most prominent myths is that of cool hunting, which Higham emphatically confronts:

“Trend marketing is not the same as ‘cool hunting’.  The process is not particularly concerned with ‘cool’.  Trend marketers will take an interest in what is fashionable, because it can sometimes provide clues as to more substantive behavioural changes.  But they do not care passionately about whether, say, stripes and short hemlines will be filling the catwalks next season.  Outside the fashion industry, few companies can usefully exploit such information in ways that have a positive impact on their bottom line.  Trend forecasters therefore do not spend the bulk of their time studying training shows or jeans styles in Williamsburg, Shoreditch or Harajuku.  In fact, they probably spend as much time in front of a computer as they do on the street.” (47)

Higham explains that cool hunting was both over-publicized and over-practiced in the 1990s, which led to a bad reputation and a misconception that cool hunting was all that trend marketers did.  Higham argues that today, trend marketers do not only identify, but also analyze trends, and deliver insights and foresight that will measurably effect companies’ strategies and finances.

Higham also asserts that trend forecasting is not a pseudo science.  “Like any branch of research, true trend analysis utilizes a formal, rigorous process.  It takes a positivist approach.  Laws are determined and theories affirmed through the utilization of rigorous empirical techniques.  Successful trend forecasting follows a logical pattern.  It combines a variety of robust methodologies in a regulated combination.” (48)

In time the trend forecasting industry will have formalized.  Agencies and individuals that utilize legitimate practices will be the only survivors and concerns about short-sighted and poorly-researched analysis will be dispelled.  For the time being, it is my sincere hope that Higham’s Next Big Thing helps to speed the industry’s evolution and aid companies in discerning true professionals from pretenders.

About the Author

William Higham is a professional trend forecaster and founder of The Next Big Thing, a trend consultancy that uses consumer research and systematic analysis of change patterns and cultural dynamics to help companies identify and target new consumer markets.  The Next Big Thing has served such brands as AOL, Budweiser, Nielsen, and Siemens.

Higham has over 20 years of experience in marketing, and has worked for Sony, Virgin and Universal.  His experience and interest in consulting for media and fashion brands led him to establish The Next Big Thing in 2002.  The Next Big Thing, published in 2009, is Higham’s first book.

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Revisiting Past Predictions

I love reviewing predictions from the past.  They give you that “wow” feeling when you realize that the future in which you live is far better than the one previously imagined, plus it’s tremendous fun to see what pans out and what doesn’t.  Check out these 1930s predictions for fashion in the year 2000:

Isn’t it awesome?  My favorite part is when the narrator says “Oh! Swish.”  What’s more, I am impressed by the number of these predictions that actually came to pass.

While we aren’t getting married in glass wedding dresses, we are beginning to enjoy smart clothing with self-regulating temperature features, whether it be via electronic systems or specially designed fabrics.

Furthermore, many women have foresaken skirts in favor of pants, and even enjoy convertible clothes- heck, sometimes they enjoy the two futurist features at once: remember the convertible pants boom?  Women even enjoy “electric headlights” (also often while wearing their convertible pants), though when they do, they are rarely on the lookout for an “honest man.”

Even transparent “net” clothing has made numerous appearances in various forms such as fishnet stockings, sheer garments in numerous runway shows, Hot Topic duds, and even Naruto cosplay costumes (careful).

Also, men are indeed outfitted with phones and radios, but even better, they have portable access to the internet- essentially the entire world.  With that, they don’t need containers- dudes can simply use their smartphones to order candy delivery for those so-called “cuties.”

Amusement aside, I think we can really learn something by looking at antiquated predictions.  While we can predict future conveniences as solutions to contemporary problems, it can be hard to anticipate how cultural values will change along with technology.  Take this 1930s fashion clip as an example- I’m sure the designers never dreamed of the impact that portable telephones would have on our lives, or that women would be just as wired and ambitious as men, and it shows.  One might also consider how contemporary design influences our future views- we sure do have a lot of the conveniences predicted in the clip, but they do not look like the designers’ prototypes.

Perhaps I am just rambling at this point.  Take from the clip what you like, but keep this in mind: we can learn a great deal from our past behavior.  Therefore, history ROCKS.  I rest my case.

[YouTube video found via amodista on Twitter]

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Trend Spotter Profile: Robyn Waters

Robyn Waters is known as the Trendmaster for a reason: she has over 30 years of experience in the trend research field, including a stint as Target’s Vice President of Trend, Design, and Product Development, work on various national design competitions, experience as a writer (Waters is the author of two books: The Trendmaster’s Guide and The Hummer and the Mini), and engagements as a keynote speaker and hired gun visionary. One of Waters’ major objectives is to simplify and demystify the art of trend tracking, which is no small feat! Check out our interview below:

CE: How did you get started in the trend spotting field? What was your educational background?

RW: It was one of those happy accidents. My dream job was to be a grain buyer for the future’s market for an international food company, (i.e. Cargill, International Multifoods, Pillsbury). I had a BS degree in Marketing (with an emphasis in International Business) and a second degree in Textiles and Clothing Fashion Merchandising. When I graduated from college in 1975 it was the worse job market since the depression. I took a part time job selling fine jewelry at a local department store. I was encouraged by my manager to apply for the executive training program, to become a buyer. Along the way, I was offered an opportunity to become an assistant in the Fashion Office, and that was the start of my trend career.

Have you recently encountered any particularly interesting trends?

I believe that for every trend there is a countertrend. I’ve learned that when things appear to be opposites, oftentimes there’s an interesting reframe encased within the contradiction. For instance, I’ve been tracking a macro trend that I call “Healthy Indulgences.” There are many new food products and cosmeceuticals that are marketed as indulgent treats that good for you and your health. I think that concept represents an enormous opportunity. There are many smaller trends fused into this trend: food safety, the ‘local’ food movement, health and wellness issues, the obesity epidemic, even the economy. Some of the newest and most interesting products are a unique blend of the seemingly contradictory concepts of “Healthy” and “Indulgent.” We now have chocolate bars with antioxidants, vodka made from soy, “functional candy” (Sport Beans from Jelly Belly); even a luxurious emporium of a supermarket called Whole Foods dedicated to this trend.

What inspired you to write The Trendmaster’s Guide?

I wrote it as a backlash to the “cool hunter” phenomenon. I was tired of chasing the holy grail of “the next big thing” and I didn’t like the idea of forcing trends into sales. I thought it was a much better approach to understand your customer first, then ask “what’s IMPORTANT?” to them and their lives. I outgrew the idea of “trend for the sake of trend.” In hindsight, it was an attempt to put more meaning into the trend tracking process. I felt it was more important to be ‘trend right,’ rather than ‘trend forward.’ The trends were important, of course. But more important to TRANSLATE them into meaningful products that resonated with peoples’ lives.

What kind of work do you do on consulting jobs? Are clients asking for trend reports? Or product development ideas?

Most of my work at the moment is speaking and keynoting at conferences. I also do day long trend seminars, where I share my trend philosophy….the “How” of trend, the “What” of trend, and the “Why” of trend. I also love being brought in as a thought leader/consultant to the fuzzy front end of innovation in large corporations. Essentially, I participate in structured ideation sessions at the beginning of the product development process.

When you speak to a large audience, what is the most important message that you want to get across?

It’s the message that landed me on Starbuck’s cups around the world as author’s quote #110 in their “White Cup Author’s Series: The Way I See It.”

“Trends are signposts pointing to what’s going on inside the hearts and minds of consumers. These days, if you want to be “on trend,” it’s more important to figure out what’s important, not just what’s next.”

With all of your speaking engagements and consulting work, you have probably encountered a wide range of trend forecasting firms, consultants. Have you noticed any industry-wide trends?

There’s one trend that concerns me, and that is that many of these companies try to cover everything under the sun, and end up creating laundry lists of mostly meaningless trends. I think more effort should be put into TRANSLATING the trends, not just TRACKING and REPORTING on them.

. . .

Robyn Waters makes some excellent points- not only that trend forecasters must find what’s important to consumers, but that forecasters must also carefully filter and analyze the trends they identify.

To learn more about Robyn Waters and her work, visit her site: http://www.rwtrend.com/

Thanks Robyn!!


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Democratizing Innovation

Democratizing Innovation

“There’s this huge shift in how innovation is getting done… it’s a shift from producer-based innovation to user-based innovation.”

So said Dr. Eric von Hippel when lecturing about his book, Democratizing Innovation, at my university last fall.

In a nutshell, von Hippel discussed how we are moving from a market based on manufacturer-based innovation to one based on user-based innovation.  Von Hippel argues that companies need to keep their eyes on users- not normal ones, but the outliers that are modifying their products.  Companies should utilize the work of these innovative users to develop new products, for the needs of outliers often reflect those of the entire population of the future.

Von Hippel and fellow innovation researchers discovered the importance of user-based innovation by tracing various manufacturers’ product lines to their roots.  In almost all cases, the researchers discovered that the manufacturers’ original prototypes were developed not by in-house designers, but by creative users- five to seven years before in-house adoption.

Examples of user-generated innovations include Gatorade (developed by the Gators football team), protein-base shampoo, feminine hygiene, mountain bikes, the mountain climbing piton, sports bras, chocolate milk, graham cracker crusts, white-out liquid, electronic mail, and desktop publishing.  Von Hippel also points out that users generate processes and services (such as rodeo kayaking and kite surfing) as well as products.

What should one take away from von Hippel’s work?  That it pays to listen to lead users who modify and play with your products in new ways.  Companies need to incorporate users into their R&D processes, by creating a system that allows customers to get involved.  Why make the effort? Von Hippel’s studies found that products developed by lead-users (not in-house designers) simply made more money.

Market researchers and trend forecasters should also note that it’s valuable to take note of how lead users (individuals who are really enthusiastic about and involved in a product or service) are developing products, because those new innovations are likely to find widespread adoption in the future.

Overall, von Hippel has a lot of interesting things to say- I recommend you dig a bit deeper!

If you are interested in reading Democratizing Innovation, you can read it for free online.  It’s generally a good read, but best consulted for reference, proof, and confirmation of facts.  Von Hippel’s lectures are enough if you just want to contemplate the overarching concepts, and if you would like to watch something similar to the lecture I saw, check out the video below:

Hurray!

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Happy February!

First, I want to share this:

Found it on obsessivecompulsive.  I’m rather ready for it- augmented hyper-reality, that is.  Heck, I feel as though a lot of us are practically there.

Second, I want to give a heads up for some very fun posts this month! I’m going to start rolling out trend spotting company profiles, new trend spotting lessons, and new interviews and book reviews.  I also plan to start a series on consumer tribes, based on a very interesting book I just finished.  Keep a lookout!

I’ll leave you with Gave Askew’s awesome depiction of Grizzly Bear’s “Two Weeks”- it’s just a nice piece of animation (and a great song).

also via obsessivecompulsive.

Happy February!

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Trend Spotting Lesson 1: Trend Boards

Overview

The general purpose of a trend spotting company is to help its clients develop products and services that are well-suited for tomorrow’s consumers.  There exists a broad range of trend spotting firms and consultants which offer a wide array of products and services.  These offerings include idea generation, primary research, secondary research, books, blogs, reports, innovation workshops, trend seminars, scenario planning, and product development consulting.  Amongst these deliverables is the humble trend board- the focus of this lesson.

Trend boards are essentially inspiration boards that provide an aesthetic summary of upcoming colors, themes, designs, and moods.  Their purpose is to provide direction to clients (who may be publishers, designers, buyers, etc…) in a simple, visually appealing manner.  Because visual elements can communicate a great volume of information very quickly, trend boards are a very expedient means of summarizing upcoming trends.

Trend boards (sometimes known as mood boards) are used primarily in the fashion industry, but can also be applied to interior decoration, colors, baby products, particular niches or segments, or pretty much any field you can imagine.  For the most part, however, trend boards focus on more immediate trends.

The Use of Trend Boards

Trend boards provide inspiration and creative direction.  They can set a mood for a clothing designer as she sets out on a new collection or assist a buyer as he prepares to stock shelves for a new season.  Magazines use trend boards to provide ideas editorial content and layout design, while trend spotting companies often use trend boards internally, as a visual representation of exploratory research or presentation aid supplementing more quantitative or text-based information.  Their use is broad, but trend boards typically act as a jumping off point, and are most often unveiled in strategy-related presentations.

Trend boards can be in either physical or digital form.  Many trend boards look like collages, whereas some have a more simplistic, clean-cut look.  When in physical form, trend boards often include actual fabric swatches and trimmings, which add a three-dimensional quality.  Digital trend boards have the advantage of digital imaging programs such as Photoshop, which can augment the collage-making process or give creators more control over images and color.

Below are some examples.  As one can see, styles vary a great deal.

By M&J Trimming

By Infomat

Photo

By Joanna Dyckhoff

http://www.tickledlimedesign.com/attachments/Image/Pop_Shop_girls_board_600-px-gif.gif

By Tickled Lime Design

Creating a Trend Board

Before starting a trend board, trend spotters first conduct research of contemporary trends pertaining to the subject matter at hand.  Sources of inspiration include tastemakers, industry leaders, designers, artist photographers, trade shows, fashion shows, art exhibitions, retail observation, street fashion, individual interviews, magazines, trade publications, books, and online research (blogs, photo sites like flickr, artists’ websites, news sites, etc…).

After conducting research and identifying major patterns and trends, trend spotters then collect a series of images (or, in the case of physical trend boards, actual sample elements) and sometimes words that represent these overreaching developments.  Images and elements include silhouettes, product images, color swatches, photographs, paintings, and sketches.  The final collection of images and elements is edited and then arranged in an aesthetically pleasing manner on the board or in a digital document.  Finished trend boards typically depict one trend or complimenting sets of trends.  For different aesthetic movements or conflicting trends, separate trend boards are created.

Presentation of Trend Boards

Finally, the trend board is presented to the client, usually with a brief explanation of the elements’ significance.  Some trend boards include sections with notes or explanations, however most trend boards present only images and offer elaborations on the side, either in written or (if presented to clients in person) oral form.

If the trend board is to be used to direct the development of a clothing or product line, the clients’ reception must be kept in mind.  Should one’s client not like the overall mood or look of the trend board, the trend spotter may consider re-doing the board (to avoid this, it is worthwhile to consult early and often with the client to make sure everyone is on the same page).  Revision of trend boards is feasible, as they rarely encompass all sub-trends of an upcoming season, but rather a visually cohesive grouping of those seen to be most compelling and relevant.  Hence, trend boards (to varying degrees) can be very subjective in nature, but can nonetheless distill very meaningful and pertinent information.

Advantages and Challenges of Trend Boards

For clients, trend boards are effective tools in that they offer a great deal of information in a small and easy to absorb format.  It is said that a picture is worth 1,000 words, and several pictures arranged in one trend board can tell volumes- yet save one a great deal of time.

Clients must nevertheless keep in mind that trend boards do not depict the entire market environment; they are typically limited to only one trend apiece.  Clients should therefore view trend boards as a depiction of an isolated trend, and should not depend on the board or boards for all of their strategic planning.

For trend spotting firms, trend boards are a wonderful way to organize results of preliminary research both for internal reference and for use in eventual presentations.  No matter how eloquent one’s writing is, nothing has an impact quite like visuals, hence trend boards may be an essential component of making a new trend really come alive for a particular client.

That said, trend boards are, for the most part, a result of exploratory research, and should not be referred to as hard-and-fast guides.  Trend boards should be considered to be a helpful complimentary and inspirational tool, but not an end product of a detailed trend analysis.

Finally, trend boards are not always the best way to visually present a trend.  Some trends are easier to visually depict than others- this is why we see many fashion-related trend boards and not so many related to technology or social movements.  When dealing with visually obscure trends, other options such as charts, street photography, video, and in-person observation should be considered as alternatives.

Sources

Dyckhoff, Joanna. “01 { color & trend boards }.” LotusHaus. Web. 13 Jan. 2010. <http://lotushaus.typepad.com/lotushaus/color_trend_boards.html>.

Milton. “Inspirational Fashion Trend Boards.” M&J Blog. 23 June 2008. Web. 16 Jan. 2010. <http://blog.mjtrim.com/2008/06/23/inspirational-fashion-trend-boards/>.

ML. “Trend Boards : Fashion Trend Reports – Terms of Interest to the Fashion Industry.” Apparel Search. Apparel Search Company, Apr. 2009. Web. 17 Jan. 2010. <http://www.apparelsearch.com/Terms/T/Trend_Boards.htm>.

“Sourcing Trend Board Imagery & Contributors.” Scarlet Opus Trends Blog. 3 Aug. 2009. Web. 17 Jan. 2010. <http://trendsblog.co.uk/?p=2376#comments>.

“Spring 2010.” Tickled Lime Design. Web. 16 Jan. 2010. <http://www.tickledlimedesign.com/page2.php>.

“The Style Council Fashion Trend Research And Color Forecasting Reports.” InfoMat. Jan. 2006. Web. 14 Jan. 2010. <http://www.infomat.com/trends/inftr0003028.html>.

Note:
This is my first post in a series of trend spotting lessons.  I hope you find them very informative.  If you are an expert on trend boards and feel I’ve missed something, please let me know- I’ll update the post!

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William Higham on Terrible Trend Terms

UK-based trend forecaster William Higham wrote a good post on Terrible Trend Terms today- it’s worth sharing!

As Higham puts it, “trend forecasters are regularly lampooned for coming up with ‘ridiculous’ names, but 8 times out of 10 it’s the media that makes up the name, not us.”

Higham goes on to write that a well-designed name can make a significant difference in helping clients pick up on trends.  “But the more bad terms that get bandied about, the less credibility the good names have. And that’s bad news for trend forecasting, and for innovation and forward thinking strategy as a whole.”

The Terrible Trend Terms post is the first of a series in which Higham will point out silly trend terms.  Today’s was ‘Quintastics’, brought to you by The Daily TelegraphTune in to Higham’s blog for more.

On a side note, William Higham is the author of a 2009 trendspotting book called “The Next Big Thing” on which I shall post a review shortly.  Hurray!

[photo via cogdogblog]

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Trendspotting Book Review- Why We Buy: The Science of Shopping

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People watching skills are an essential component of a trend spotter’s toolkit.  Without the ability to observe peoples’ behavior and discover underlying motivations behind their actions, it is nearly impossible for one to formulate clear ideas on how consumers’ behavior may change in the future.

For the cultivation of observational skills, I recommend reading Why We Buy: The Science of Shopping, an exploration of observational field work in the retail environment written by Paco Underhill, an environmental psychologist and pioneer in the field of market research.

Why We Buy introduces readers to “the science of shopping” and details the work of “trackers,” who observe the shopping behavior of consumers either via time-lapse photos, video, or track sheets, which they fill out while trailing an unknowing customer.

About the Book

Underhill divides his book into several sections, delving into the science of shopping, the mechanics of shopping, the effects of gender differences on the retail environment, and the dynamics of shopping,

There were some points made in Why We Buy that I found to be particularly interesting.  One important point Underhill makes is that his particular discipline did not really exist before he got started- people simply had not applied ethnographic research to retail environments.

This reveals just how new this sort of research is to the commercial world- it has barely existed for two decades.  One can therefore expect that commercial observational research is still developing and evolving at a pretty fast pace, and that there are no universal standards or protocols.

Underhill also makes an interesting point regarding the qualities of people well-suited to conduct observational research in retail environments:

“Fieldwork in any physical or social science is difficult.  We found that, for our purposes, smart, creative people- artists, actors, writers, a puppeteer- often have what it takes. Beyond the fact that they have no theories to uphold or demolish, their professional skills are often rooted in their ability to observe.  Also, it does not hurt that they have flexible schedules, so that when a Brazilian brewer or Australian tampon manufacturer or American fast-food operator happens to call, they have the open calendar and open curiosity to be willing to take a look.” (13-14)

I have noticed a general pattern amongst descriptions of qualified field researchers and trend spotters: few experts refer to one single major or level of education.  Rather, most market research and trend spotting authorities suggest that curious, creative observant, and empathetic individuals are best suited for the profession.  Perhaps this pattern is another indication of the newness of this field.  Because the trend spotting industry is new, relatively small, and constantly changing, one cannot create a fixed curriculum that will meet its unique needs.

Underhill spends the bulk of his book revealing the effects of different aspects of store layout on customers’ experiences and businesses’ conversion rates.  Through his company’s research, he has discovered some very interesting details that have a significant impact on a store’s success.  For example, Underhill extols the virtues of offering a “landing strip” in store entrances- essentially some space in which customers can adjust to being inside the store.  If a retailer places baskets, maps, important information, or displays too close to a store entrance customers will not even notice them.

Underhill goes on to detail the importance of interception rates in stores, as well as the necessity of seating areas in stores in which husbands, boyfriends, or children are dragged along.  These areas provide comfort and entertainment for primary shoppers’ companions, freeing up the shoppers and hence allowing them to spend more time (and hence more money) in the store.

Even something so simple as sign placement can have huge impact.  Underhill cites countless situations in which signs were placed in inopportune locations- not out of ignorance or bad design, but because cleaning crews (who have no involvement with in-store marketing or design) are often those who end up moving and replacing signs and displays when cleaning the floors.

One of my favorite sections of the book is that in which Underhill describes shoppers’ favorite things (which include touch, mirrors, discovery, recognition, and bargains) as well as their least favorite things (which include too many mirrors, lines, impediments between them and products such as locked shelves, goods out of stock, obscure price tags, and intimidating service).  Without observation, who would have realized that reflective surfaces slow shoppers down, or that display cases may often reduce overall revenue, even when their absence leads to higher rates of shoplifting?

I also enjoyed Chapter 18: The Self Exam, which encourages individuals to observe their own stores, first from afar, then incrementally closer, until they finally analyze their businesses from within.  Underhill encourages innovative thinking by prompting entrepreneurs to compare their retail formats with those in different industry, pointing out that video stores can learn from book stores, grocery stores from convenience stores, etc.

Why We Buy may not directly address the trend forecasting field as it focuses primarily on present-time diagnostics, however it is undoubtedly relevant to forecasters and strategists: “First and foremost, shopping follows social change, and woe to the businessperson who fails to comprehend” (240).

Overall, Why We Buy is a helpful guide for present and aspiring trend spotters in that it encourages one to dig beneath the surface when observing superficial actions, and to think critically about the impact of various environments on consumer behavior.  As Underhill puts it, “[t]he point here is that whenever a decision is made, it should be examined closely for its farthest-reaching implications” (185).  Underhill encourages readers to think about things from different angles and cultivate a voracious hunger for comprehension.

About the Author

Paco Underhill is the founder and CEO of Envirosell, a global research and consulting firm specializing in the study of human behavior in retail, service, home and on-line environments.  Envirosell offers observational research, in the form of real time observations and videotaping, attitidinal research, in the form of shopper interviews, videotaped shop-along interviews, sales associate interviews, focus groups, and web-based interviews, and customer experience analysis, in the form of in-store consulting, competitor-store audits, mystery shopping, ideation sessions, and website analysis.

Paco Underhill has written two books in addition to Why We Buy: What Women Want and Call of the Mall.  He is currently working on his fourth book, The Female Factor – The Worship of Goddesses.

Book Citation

Underhill, Paco. Why We Buy The Science Of Shopping. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000. Print.

Check out Why We Buy on Google Books here

Image via CoverBrowser.com

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Why People Hate Trendspotters

Oh Magic Eight Ball... by txkimmers.

I recently came across an article which discusses the work of Ann Mack (a trendspotter working for JWT).  More importantly, Its author, Jim Edwards, reveals one of the key challenges the trendspotting industry must overcome in the next couple of years.

Edwards, expresses the negative attitude people hold toward trendspotting, describing it as “one of those dubious add-on services that agencies like to sell to clients because it’s cheap to product and non-measurable” and comparing it to “being a TV psychic.”

Edwards goes on to critically address Mack’s methodology, stating that she seeks information from limited, biased, and privileged sources, often states the obvious, and simply takes current behavior and predicts its continuation.  While Edwards admits that Mack occasionally shares interesting information, he also feels that many of her less obvious predictions are “flat wrong.”

For the most part, I agree with Jim Edwards.  Trendspotting is indeed a “dubious add-on service” when the source neglects to use proper methodology, which does involve subjective, passive observation, but also careful cross-checking, reference to statistics and formal surveys / reports, primary research, and other formal methods.

To this point, the trendspotting industry has been largely informal, however the lack of accountability cannot continue indefinitely.  Companies will continue to consult trendspotters and trend forecasting agencies, but only those who use formal, effective measures.  In the next couple of years, I think the trendspotting industry will formalize.  Specific, proven methodologies will be established, and unqualified pretenders will no longer find work.  Once this happens, I hope people can see the strategic value that trendspotting offers.  Until then, I completely understand why many scoff at the profession.  Trendspotters cannot command respect until they assume accountability for their methods.

Original Article: JWT Trendspotter Mack Makes Sure She’s Never Wrong… Most of the Time

Photo via txkimmer

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2057 & 3-D Dolphin Buddies

I love it when people share their visions for the future.  Have you seen Discovery’s 2057?  It’s a three-part series that explores the potential future of The Body, The City, and The World.  Here’s The City:

In each part, Discovery (with the help of Michio Kaku) shares various technological conveniences we might enjoy in the future, and discusses where we currently are with their development.

It was made in 2007, but if you haven’t seen it already, I think you may enjoy it, even if the dolphin / shark / quirky-hacker-grandpa-who-gets-crabby-at-his-dusty-Asimo subplot is a bit silly ^_^

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