Whether you’re looking for cutting-edge insights on international affairs, virtual reality, trend spotting, scenario planning, or futurism, Professor David Passig is a good man to consult.
Professor David Passig is introduced on his website as “a futurist specializing in future technologies and their impact on economic, social and educational systems.” In addition to teaching at Bar-Ilan University in Israel (subjects include systems theories, future methodologies, technological, social and educational futures), Professor Passig has consulted various companies, in addition to directing one of his own for some time. On the side, Professor Passig has authored and contributed to several bestselling books and other publications with future-oriented subjects.
Check out our Q&A below to learn more about Professor Passig’s beginnings, background, interests, current projects, and most recent predictions. You’ll pick up quite a few trend spotting and forecasting tips along the way!
CE: What first sparked your interest in futurism?
DP: I have once stumbled upon an exhibit about the Future Home, as an undergraduate student in 1985, and felt in love with the field of predicting trends. It was the early years of the PC and the exhibit demonstrated technologies of the year 2000. They were showing flat and huge LCD monitors, internet gaming, etc. I was thrilled to learn how people could predict the future. I then searched where one could take graduate studies in the field and found a program at the U of Minnesota in the US. The special focus of this program was Futures Methodologies. My PhD dissertation was to develop a methodology and validate it.
How did your launch your career in futurist studies and consulting?
I finished my PhD in Futures Studies and returned to my Homeland Israel. I was accepted to the faculty at the Bar Ilan University and engaged in the field. I am considered yet to be the only futurist is Israel with a PhD in Futures Studies. There are many who specialize in futures thinking but they are coming from other and different fields.
In the counseling section of your Bar-Ilan site, you assert that there are four types of futurists- one who uses heuristics to make predictions, another who focuses on scenarios, another who focuses on designing the future, and yet another who develops wild cards to help organizations prepare for any eventuality. Which type of futurist are you, and why?
I am developing methodologies that could engage stake holders in different fields to design future imageries in order to invent futures and not just coop with trends. However, in my consulting endeavors I am attentive to the needs of the firm or company and match for them the best and efficient methodology.
It looks as though you are very passionate about virtual reality. What about VR do you find to be particularly noteworthy these days? Where (in a few words) will it take us in the near future?
VR is a new mode of representation and expression. It will probably take us humans to new frontiers of ideas we could not dream to generate and express with the existing modes we have managed to develop up to now. Think how the written letter has pushed us to develop poetry and you might imagine how 3D and immersive images and sounds could push us to develop new and far reaching genres and deep insights about our space of existence. I am fascinated to foresee these kinds of things and I am designing studies to understand their trajectories.
Are there any trends and developments in the past couple of years in which you are particularly interested?
I am very much interested in understanding world affairs and particularly, world conflicts of the first half of the 21st century that will shape the technologies of the 21st century. I have just published a book titled: 2048 in which I am studying these trends. Here is a synopsis of the book:
Why do nations fight against one another? What drives leaders to decide whether to send troops to war or sign a peace accord? What goes into the mind of parents while sending their children into battle? What is the most important factor that brings triumph or collapse on the battlefield?
Entire libraries have been written on these historical enigmas in attempting to understand what happened post factum. However, only a few have attempted to analyze their vectors in the 21st century. Prof. Passig engages in these vectors with great courage and simple language. He delves into these issues in order to identify the major confrontations of the first half of the 21st century and zooms in to identify how these geopolitical trends would be reflected in the Middle East and in the Israeli-Arab conflict.In his book, Passig presents a theory that runs counter to conventional wisdom arguing that it is not the economy of a state, nor its values, its ethnic fabric, or its religion that marks the future of its national security. It is, primarily, the alignment of its land that represents its geography and its borders that shape its future. These alignments mold its perception of power and drive its population toward confrontations that would shape their future. They are the primary factors that define their history for best and worst.In the 21st century, according to the geographical theory at the heart of this book, humans and their leaders will be driven by a great paralyzing force of territorial, archaic fear. With this theory, Passig deduces that two global confrontations are developing in the background, which will be reflected in the Israeli-Arab front as well: One is a confrontation between the US and Russia circa 2020 and the second between the US and Turkey circa 2050. Passig assesses that proceeding with great caution in this global geopolitical tangle, Israel could turn the table in its favor and would be able to sign a peace treaty with most of its surrounding Arab neighbors by 2050.
List of trends
1. Coverage of a new cold war will be filling newspapers in the second decade of the 21st century.
2. Tension between Russia and the US will peak around 2020.
3. Fertility rates in most of the world countries will decline to an average of 1.8, which is less than the replacement rate (2.1 per female).
4. The world will enter an epoch in history, which will be called “the Demographic Winter”. World population will peak to 9-10 billion by the mid 21st century and then will drop to 5-6 billion circa 2100.
5. Shortage in manpower will drive humanity to develop robots to fulfill its work force needs.
6. Unmanned vehicles will dominate the future battlefields. Thus, future wars will cause fewer casualties in contrast to wars of the 20th century.
7. Extensive investment in R&D will lead humanity to produce energy in space and beaming it through microwaves to earth’s surface.
8. The United States will invest tremendous resources to help Turkey regain a regional power status in order to play a balancing role in the Middle East.
9. Most of the Arab countries surrounding Israel, with the exception of Jordan, would be considered failed states and would invite Turkey to rescue their regimes.
10. The United States will be engaged in a campaign in the Caucasus against Russia to alleviate pressure from Eastern Europe. Turkish forces will take the central role in these efforts.
11. Russia will regain control of former Eastern European states including the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine and more.
12. Russia will stir tension between Syria and Israel circa 2020.
13. Syria and Hezbollah will launch a blitz of rockets to Northern Israel.
14. Israel would be forced to engage in a massive land maneuver into Syria and Lebanon and might bring its forces to Damascus.
15. Israel would not agree to withdraw its forces without guarantees from the US and Turkey.
16. It will take many years until Israel will agree to retreat its forces from Syria and Lebanon.
17. Israel will sign a peace accord with most of its surrounding Arab countries circa 2050 under the brokerage of Turkey.
Would you say there is a difference between futurism and trend spotting? If so, what would it be?
There is a great difference between these two. Trend spotting is geared at understanding trajectories of processes into the very immediate future. The immediate futures are defined at trends that will materialize in the near 6 months to at best 18 months. Most of the time this can be done by using linear extrapolation of existing signs. Futurism, however, is geared to study how trends are curving in a variety of time frames. We are used to study these curves in five time frames. 1-2 years ahead, 3-5 years ahead, 10-20 years ahead, 50-70 years ahead and 100 years ahead. We know already that trends are curving constantly so we are engaged to foresee when and how the trends are going to take another curve. Of course we are using different methodologies that we know their predictive reliability beforehand.
What advice would you give to individuals who are interested in becoming futurists or trend spotters?
Try to study from a very broad and multidisciplinary perspective anything you are encountering. The most important thing is that you should be aware the reliability of linear extrapolation is barely 20%.
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To learn more about Professor David Passig, visit his website.
The official page of 2048 can be viewed here (through a Google-translated lens)
